PRELIMINARY FORECAST TEST FOR 2000:

Three Postscript diagrams show test results for NW and SW Pacific forecasts made
during year 2000. 

The maps are in a format like that of Figure 8 of Kagan and Jackson (2000, see
below in this WEB page in RECENT PUBLICATIONS). For the NW Pacific, parameters
of the forecasts are the same as used in 1999. For the SW Pacific we reduced
the scale distance, r_s to 2.5 km, according to the above paper (see p. 449,
column 2, line 5 from below). The likelihood test diagram is similar to Figure
9 in the paper. The forecasts results are now satisfactory (that is, the
catalog falls within the 95% confidence intervals of model prediction) in both
regions. 

REFERENCE:

Kagan, Yan Y., and David D. Jackson, 2000. Probabilistic forecasting of
earthquakes, (Leon Knopoff's Festschrift), Geophys. J. Int., 143, 438-453.

FIGURE CAPTIONS:

Figure 1a,b.

Color scale tones show the probability of earthquake occurrence calculated
using the Harvard 1977-1999 catalogue; earthquakes in year 2000 are shown in
white.

(a) Northwest Pacific long-term seismicity forecast: latitude limits from 0.25S
to 60.25N, longitude limits from 109.75E to 170.25E; Events from 2000/1/1 to
2000/12/31.

(b) Southwest Pacific long-term seismicity forecast: latitude limits from 0.25N
to 60.25S, longitude limits from 109.75E to 169.75W; Events from 2000/1/1 to
2000/12/31.

Figure 2.

Likelihood test of the forecast in previous Figure. We use the 1977-1999
earthquakes as a control set. The solid line is the best Gaussian curve, having
the same standard deviation as simulations. Dashed curve corresponds to
simulation distributions for NW-Pacific; dash-dotted curve to SW-Pacific.
Curves on the right from the Gaussian curve indicate that the actual
earthquakes were more concentrated in the red zones (high probability) than
predicted by the model, so that the model forecasts over too broad an area.
Curves to the left of the Gaussian curve indicate that the earthquakes were not
as concentrated in the red zones as expected from the probability model.