List of publications of Yan Kagan, 1973--current.

-1. Kagan, Y. Y., 1973. Statistical methods in the study of the seismic
process (translated from Russian by D. Vere-Jones; with discussion:
comments by M. S. Bartlett, A. G. Hawkes, and J. W. Tukey), Bull. Int.
Statist. Inst., 45(3), 437-453. 

0. Kagan, Y. Y., 1973. A probabilistic description of the seismic
regime, Izv. Acad. Sci. USSR, Phys. Solid Earth, 213-219, (English
translation). 

1. Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, L., 1975. Do epicentres migrate on the
San Andreas fault?, Nature, 257, p. 160. 

2. Kagan, Y., and Knopoff, L., 1976. Statistical search for non-random
features of the seismicity of strong earthquakes, Phys. Earth Planet.
Inter., 12, 291-318. 

3. Kagan, Y., and Knopoff, L., 1977. Earthquake risk prediction as a
stochastic process, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 14, 97-108. 

4. Knopoff, L., and Kagan, Y., 1977. Analysis of the theory of extremes
as applied to earthquake problems, J. Geophys. Res., 82, 5647-5657. 

5. Kagan, Y., and Knopoff, L., 1978. Statistical study of the
occurrence of shallow earthquakes, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 55,
67-86. 

6. Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, L., 1980. Spatial distribution of
earthquakes: The two-point correlation function, Geophys. J. R. astr.
Soc., 62, 303-320. 

7. Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, L., 1980. Dependence of seismicity on
depth, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 70, 1811-1822. 

8. Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, L., 1981. Stochastic synthesis of
earthquake catalogs, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 2853-2862. 

9. Kagan, Y. Y., 1981. Spatial distribution of earthquakes: The
three-point moment function, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 67, 697-717. 

10. Kagan, Y. Y., 1981. Spatial distribution of earthquakes: The
four-point moment function, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 67, 719-733. 

11. Knopoff, L., Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, R., 1982. b-values for
fore- and aftershocks in real and simulated earthquake sequences. Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am., 72, 1663-1676. 

12. Kagan, Y. Y., 1982. Stochastic model of earthquake fault geometry,
Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 71, 659-691. 

13. Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, L., 1984. A stochastic model of
earthquake occurrence, Proc. 8-th Int. Conf. Earthq. Eng., 1, 295-302. 

14. Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, L., 1985. The first-order statistical
moment of the seismic moment tensor, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 81,
429-444. 

15. Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, L., 1985. The two-point correlation
function of the seismic moment tensor, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 83,
637-656. 

16. Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, L., 1987. Random stress and earthquake
statistics: Time dependence, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 88, 723-731. 

17. Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, L., 1987. Statistical short-term
earthquake prediction, Science, 236, 1563-1567. 

18. Kagan, Y. Y., 1987. Point sources of elastic deformation:
Elementary sources, static displacements, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc.,
90, 1-34. (Errata, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 93, 591, 1988.) 

19. Kagan, Y. Y., 1987. Point sources of elastic deformation:
Elementary sources, dynamic displacements, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc.,
91, 891-912. (Errata, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 93, 591, 1988.) 

20. Kagan, Y. Y., 1988. Multipole expansions of extended sources of
elastic deformation, Geophys. J., 93, 101-114. 

21. Kagan, Y. Y., 1988. Static sources of elastic deformation in
homogeneous half-space, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 10,560-10,574. 

22. Davis, P. M., D. D. Jackson, and Y. Y. Kagan, 1989. The longer it
has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till
the next?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 79, 1439-1456. 

23. Kagan, Y. Y., 1989. Earthquakes and fractals, in: Fractal phenomena
in disordered systems, by R. Orbach et al, Annu. Rev. Mater. Sci., 19,
520-522. 

24. Kagan, Y. Y., 1990. Random stress and earthquake statistics:
Spatial dependence, Geophys. J. Int., 102, 573-583. 

25. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1991. Long-term earthquake
clustering, Geophys. J. Int., 104, 117-133. 

26. Kagan, Y. Y., 1991. Fractal dimension of brittle fracture, J.
Nonlinear Sci., 1, 1-16. 

27. Kagan, Y. Y., 1991. Seismic moment distribution, Geophys. J. Int.,
106, 123-134. 

28. Kagan, Y. Y., 1991. Likelihood analysis of earthquake catalogues,
Geophys. J. Int., 106, 135-148. 

29. Kagan, Y. Y., 1991. 3-D rotation of double-couple earthquake
sources, Geophys. J. Int., 106, 709-716. 

30. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1991. Seismic gap hypothesis: Ten
years after, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 21,419-21,431. 

31. Kagan, Y. Y., 1992. Seismicity: Turbulence of solids, Nonlinear
Sci. Today, 2, 1-13. 

32. Kagan, Y. Y., 1992. On the geometry of an earthquake fault system,
Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. (PEPI), 71, 15-35. 

33. Molchan, G. M., and Y. Y. Kagan, 1992. Earthquake prediction and
its optimization, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 4823-4838. 

34. Kagan, Y. Y., 1992. Correlations of earthquake focal mechanisms,
Geophys. J. Int., 110, 305-320. 

35. Kagan, Y. Y., 1993. Statistics of characteristic earthquakes, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Amer., 83, 7-24. 

36. Jackson, D. D., and Y. Y. Kagan, 1993. Reply [to Nishenko & Sykes],
J. Geophys. Res., 98, 9917-9920. 

37. Kagan, Y. Y., 1994. Incremental stress and earthquakes, Geophys. J.
Int., 117, 345-364. 

38. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1994. Long-term probabilistic
forecasting of earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 13,685-13,700. 

39. Kagan, Y. Y., 1994. Distribution of incremental static stress
caused by earthquakes, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1, 172-181. 

40. Kagan, Y. Y., 1994. Observational evidence for earthquakes as a
nonlinear dynamic process, Physica D, 77, 160-192. 

41. Kagan, Y. Y., 1995. Magnitude-frequency distribution in the
European-Mediterranean earthquake regions -- comment, Tectonophysics,
245, 101-105. 

42. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1995. New seismic gap hypothesis:
Five years after, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 3943-3959. 

43. Kagan, Y. Y., 1996. Comment on ``The Gutenberg-Richter or
characteristic earthquake distribution, which is it?" by S. G.
Wesnousky, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 86, 274-285. 

44. Kagan, Y. Y., 1996. VAN earthquake predictions -- an attempt at
statistical evaluation, Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 1315-1318. 

45. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1996. Statistical tests of VAN
earthquake predictions: Comments and reflections, Geophysical Research
Letters, 23, 1433-1436. 

46. Sornette, D., L. Knopoff, Y. Y. Kagan, and C. Vanneste, 1996.
Rank-ordering statistics of extreme events: Application to the
distribution of large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 101,
13,883-13,893. 

47. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. Vere-Jones, 1996. Problems in the modelling
and statistical analysis of earthquakes, in: Lecture Notes in
Statistics (Athens Conference on Applied Probability and Time Series
Analysis), 114, C. C. Heyde, Yu. V. Prohorov, R. Pyke, and S. T.
Rachev, eds., New York, Springer, pp. 398-425. 

48. Kagan, Y. Y., 1997. Comment (Review 25.1) on ``Application of the
concentration parameter of seismoactive faults to Southern California"
by A. Zavyalov and R. E. Habermann, Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 149,
137-144. 

49. Kagan, Y. Y., 1997. Seismic moment-frequency relation for shallow
earthquakes: Regional comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 2835-2852. 

50. Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Mulargia, 1997.
Earthquakes cannot be predicted, Science, 275, 1616-1617. 

51. Kagan, Y. Y., 1997. Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake
sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment, Tectonophysics, 270,
207-219. 

52. Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Mulargia, 1997.
Response - Cannot earthquakes be predicted?, Science, 278, 488-490. 

53. Kagan, Y. Y., 1997. Earthquake size distribution and earthquake
insurance, Communications in Statistics: Stochastic Models, 13(4),
775-797. 

54. Kagan, Y. Y., 1997. Are earthquakes predictable?, Geophys. J. Int.,
131, 505-525. 

55. Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, F. Mulargia, and S. C.
Stiros, 1998. Letter [on VAN], Physics Today, 51(6), 95-96. 

56. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1998. Spatial aftershock
distribution: Effect of normal stress, J. Geophys. Res., 103,
24,453-24,467. 

57. Jackson, D. D., and Y. Y. Kagan, 1998. VAN method lacks validity,
Eos Trans. AGU, 79(47), pp. 573, 579. 

58. Jackson, D. D., and Y. Y. Kagan, 1999. Testable earthquake
forecasts for 1999, Seism. Res. Lett., 70, 393-403. 

59. Kagan, Y. Y., 1999. Is earthquake seismology a hard, quantitative
science?, Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 155, 233-258. (Proceedings of
`Workshop on Seismicity Patterns, Their Statistical Significance and
Physical Meaning', held 1998, May 11-13 in Nikko, Japan). 

60. Kagan, Y. Y., 1999. Universality of the seismic moment-frequency
relation, Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 155, 537-573. (Proceedings of
`Workshop on Seismicity Patterns, Their Statistical Significance and
Physical Meaning', held 1998, May 11-13 in Nikko, Japan). 

61. Kagan, Y. Y. and D. D. Jackson, 1999. Worldwide doublets of large
shallow earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 89, 1147-1155. 

62. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 2000. Probabilistic forecasting of
earthquakes, (Leon Knopoff's Festschrift), Geophys. J. Int., 143,
438-453. 

63. Kagan, Y. Y., 2000. Temporal correlations of earthquake focal
mechanisms, Geophys. J. Int., 143, 881-897. see correction
http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/d2ct_corr.pdf. 

64. Kagan, Y. Y., and F. Schoenberg, 2001. Estimation of the upper
cutoff parameter for the tapered Pareto distribution, (David
Vere-Jones's Festschrift), J. Appl. Probab., 38A, 168-185. 

65. Kagan, Y. Y., 2002. Seismic moment distribution revisited: I.
Statistical results, Geophys. J. Int., 148, 521-542. 

66. Kagan, Y. Y., 2002. Aftershock zone scaling, Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Amer., 92, 641-655. 

67. Kagan, Y. Y., 2002. Seismic moment distribution revisited: II.
Moment conservation principle, Geophys. J. Int., 149, 731-754. 

68. Bird, P., Kagan, Y. Y., and Jackson, D. D., 2002. Plate tectonics
and earthquake potential of spreading ridges and oceanic transform
faults, in: Plate Boundary Zones, AGU Monograph, eds. S. Stein and J.
T. Freymueller, 203-218 (DOI: 10/1029/030GD12). 

69. Kagan, Y. Y., 2002. Modern California earthquake catalogs, their
comparison, Seism. Res. Lett., 73, 921-929. 

70. Kagan, Y. Y., 2003. Accuracy of modern global earthquake catalogs,
Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 135(2-3), 173-209. 

71. Kagan, Y. Y., Y. F. Rong, and D. D. Jackson, 2003. Probabilistic
forecasting of seismicity, Chapter 5.2 in "EARTHQUAKE SCIENCE AND
SEISMIC RISK REDUCTION", eds. F. Mulargia and R. J. Geller, pp.
185-200, Kluwer, Dordrecht. 

72. Kagan, Y. Y., 2003. Chapters 2.3.1 and 2.3.3 in "EARTHQUAKE SCIENCE
AND SEISMIC RISK REDUCTION", eds. F. Mulargia and R. J. Geller, pp.
46-51, Kluwer, Dordrecht. 

73. Rong, Y.-F., D. D. Jackson and Y. Y. Kagan, 2003. Seismic gaps and
earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B10), 2471, ESE-6, pp. 1-14,
doi:10.1029/2002JB002334. 

74. Kagan, Y. Y., 2004. Short-term properties of earthquake catalogs
and models of earthquake source, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 94(4),
1207-1228. 

75. Bird, P., and Y. Y. Kagan, 2004. Plate-Tectonic Analysis of Shallow
Seismicity: Apparent Boundary Width, Beta, Corner Magnitude, Coupled
Lithosphere Thickness, and Coupling in Seven Tectonic Settings, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Amer., 94(6), 2380-2399 (plus electronic supplement). 

76. Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and D. D. Jackson, 2005. Importance
of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering, J.
Geophys. Res., 110(5), B05S08, doi:10.1029/2004JB003286, pp. 1-13. 

77. Kagan, Y. Y., 2005. Earthquake slip distribution: A statistical
model, J. Geophys. Res., 110(5), B05S11, doi:10.1029/2004JB003280, pp.
1-15. 

78. Kagan, Y. Y., D. D. Jackson, and Z. Liu, 2005. Stress and
earthquakes in southern California, 1850-2004, J. Geophys. Res.,
110(5), B05S14, doi:10.1029/2004JB003313, pp. 1-13. 

79. Zaliapin, I. V., Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Schoenberg, 2005.
Approximating the distribution of Pareto sums, Pure Appl. Geoph.
(PAGEOPH), 162(6-7), 1187-1228. 

80. Kagan, Y. Y., and H. Houston, 2005. Relation between mainshock
rupture process and Omori's law for aftershock moment release rate,
Geophys. J. Int., 163(3), 1039-1048. 

81. Kagan, Y. Y., 2005. Double-couple earthquake focal mechanism:
Random rotation and display, Geophys. J. Int., 163(3), 1065-1072. 

82. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 2006. Comment on `Testing
earthquake prediction methods: "The West Pacific short-term forecast of
earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV >= 5.8"' by V. G. Kossobokov,
Tectonophysics, (TECTO), 413(1-2), 33-38. 

83. Kagan, Y. Y., D. D. Jackson, and Y. F. Rong, 2006. A new catalog of
southern California earthquakes, 1800-2005, Seism. Res. Lett., 77(1),
30-38. 

84. Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and D. D. Jackson, 2006. Comparison
of short-term and time-independent earthquake forecast models for
southern California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 96(1), 90-106. 

85. Castellaro, S., F. Mulargia and Y. Y. Kagan, 2006. Regression
problems for magnitudes, Geophys. J. Int., 165(3), 913-930. 

86. Jackson, D. D., and Y. Y. Kagan, 2006. The 2004 Parkfield
earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes:
lessons for the future, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 96(4B), S397-S409. 

87. Kagan, Y. Y., 2006. Why does theoretical physics fail to explain
and predict earthquake occurrence?, in: Modelling Critical and
Catastrophic Phenomena in Geoscience: A Statistical Physics Approach,
Lecture Notes in Physics, 705, pp. 303-359, P. Bhattacharyya and B. K.
Chakrabarti (Eds), Springer Verlag, Berlin--Heidelberg. 

88. Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and D. D. Jackson, 2007.
High-resolution time-independent grid-based forecast for M>=5
earthquakes in California, Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1), 78-86. 

89. Kagan, Y. Y., D. D. Jackson, and Y. F. Rong, 2007. A testable
five-year forecast of moderate and large earthquakes in southern
California based on smoothed seismicity, Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1),
94-98. 

90. Shen, Z.-K., D. D. Jackson, and Y. Y. Kagan, 2007. Implications of
geodetic strain rate for future earthquakes, with a five-year forecast
of M5 earthquakes in southern California, Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1),
116-120. 

91. Kagan, Y. Y., 2007. Earthquake spatial distribution: the
correlation dimension, Geophys. J. Int., 168(3), 1175-1194. 

92. Kagan, Y. Y., 2007. On earthquake predictability measurement:
information score and error diagram, Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH),
accepted.