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PUBLICATION LISTS:

Publications 1964/1973, PS file

Publications and manuscripts 1975/present, PS file (LIST.PS)

Publications and manuscripts 1975/present, TeX file (LIST.TEX)

Manuscripts and other files available through FTP anonymous

Some old manuscripts available through FTP anonymous

Texts of old (mostly 1980-1994) manuscripts (## 7-37)

Access to publication lists and to texts of old (mostly 1980-1994) manuscripts

Files available at MOHO

Some of papers have corrections which are listed in ERRATA and CORRECTIONS

Query Results from the Physics/Geophysics Database for Y. KAGAN (abstracts, papers, some authored by Yurii M. Kagan, Russian physicist) .

Publications with abstracts, original text, figures, and sometimes PDF files, the numbers at the item front are from LIST.TEX/LIST.PS file (see above):

0. Kagan, Ya. Ya., A probabilistic description of the seismic regime, Izvestiya Academy of Sciences USSR, Physics of the Solid Earth, no.4, April 1973, pp.213-19.

1. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, Do epicentres migrate on the San Andreas fault?, Nature, 257, p. 160, 1975

2. Kagan, Y., and L. Knopoff, 1976. Statistical search for non-random features of the seismicity of strong earthquakes, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 12(4), 291-318.

3. Kagan, Y., and L. Knopoff, 1977. Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 14(2), 97-108.

6. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, 1980. Spatial distribution of earthquakes: The two-point correlation function, Geophys. J. Roy. astr. Soc., 62, 303-320.

7. Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, L., 1980. Dependence of seismicity on depth, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 70, 1811-1822.

8. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, 1981. Stochastic synthesis of earthquake catalogs, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 2853-2862.

11. Knopoff, L., Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, R., 1982. b-values for fore- and aftershocks in real and simulated earthquake sequences. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 72, 1663-1676; 1.0 Mb PDF file.

12. Kagan, Y. Y., 1982. Stochastic model of earthquake fault geometry, Geophys. J. Roy. astr. Soc., 71, 659-691.

13. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, 1984. A stochastic model of earthquake occurrence, Proc. 8-th Int. Conf. Earthq. Eng., San Francisco, Calif., vol. 1, 295-302.

17. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, "Statistical short-term earthquake prediction", Science, 236, 1563-1567, 1987.

22. Davis, P. M., D. D. Jackson, and Y. Y. Kagan, 1989. The longer it has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 79, 1439-1456; 1.2 Mb PDF file.

25. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1991. Long-term earthquake clustering, Geophys. J. Int., 104, 117-133.

26. Kagan, Y. Y., 1991. Fractal dimension of brittle fracture, J. Nonlinear Sci., 1, 1-16.

27. Kagan, Y. Y., 1991. Seismic moment distribution, Geophys. J. Int., 106, 123-134.

29. Kagan, Y. Y., 1991. 3-D rotation of double-couple earthquake sources, Geophys. J. Int., 106, 709-716 ;

30. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1991. Seismic gap hypothesis: Ten years after, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 21,419-21,431.

32. Kagan, Y. Y., 1992. On the geometry of an earthquake fault system, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 71(1-2), 15-35.

33. Molchan, G. M., and Y. Y. Kagan, 1992. Earthquake prediction and its optimization, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 4823-4838.

35. Kagan, Y. Y., 1993. Statistics of characteristic earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 83, 7-24.

38. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1994. Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 13,685-13,700.

39. Kagan, Y. Y., 1994. Distribution of incremental static stress caused by earthquakes, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1, 172-181.

40. Kagan, Y. Y., 1994. Observational evidence for earthquakes as a nonlinear dynamic process, Physica D, 77, 160-192.

41. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1995. New seismic gap hypothesis: Five years after, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 3943-3959.

42. Kagan, Y. Y., 1995. Magnitude-frequency distribution in the European-Mediterranean earthquake regions -- comment, Tectonophysics, 245, 101-105.

43. Kagan, Y. Y., 1996. Comment on ``The Gutenberg-Richter or characteristic earthquake distribution, which is it?" by S. G. Wesnousky, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 86, 274-285.

44. Kagan, Y. Y., 1996. VAN earthquake predictions -- an attempt at statistical evaluation, Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 1315-1318.

45. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1996. Statistical tests of VAN earthquake predictions: Comments and reflections, Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 1433-1436.

46. Sornette, D., L. Knopoff, Y. Y. Kagan, and C. Vanneste, 1996. Rank-ordering statistics of extreme events: Application to the distribution of large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 13,883-13,893.

47. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. Vere-Jones, 1996. Problems in the modelling and statistical analysis of earthquakes, in: Lecture Notes in Statistics, 114, pp. 398-425.

48. Kagan, Y. Y., 1997. Comment (Review 25.1) on ``Application of the concentration parameter of seismoactive faults to Southern California" by A. Zavyalov and R. E. Habermann, Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 149, 137-144.

49. Kagan, Y. Y., 1997. Seismic moment-frequency relation for shallow earthquakes: Regional comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 2835-2852.

50. Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Mulargia, 1997. Earthquakes cannot be predicted, Science, 275, 1616-1617.

51. Kagan Y. Y. "Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment", Tectonophysics, 270, 207-219, 1997.

52. Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Mulargia, 1997. Response -- Cannot earthquakes be predicted?, Science, 278, 488-490.

53. Kagan Y. Y. "Earthquake size distribution and earthquake insurance", Communications in Statistics: Stochastic Models, 13(4), 775-797, 1997.

54. Kagan Y. Y. "Are Earthquakes Predictable?", Geophys. J. Int., 131, 505-525, 1997.

55. Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, F. Mulargia, and S. C. Stiros, 1998. Letter [on VAN], Physics Today, 51(6), 95-96.

56. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, "Spatial aftershock distribution: Effect of normal stress", J. Geophys. Res., 103, 24,453-24,467, 1998.

57. Jackson, D. D., and Y. Y. Kagan, 1998. VAN method lacks validity, Eos Trans. AGU, 79(47), pp.~573, 579.

58. Jackson, D. D., and Y. Y. Kagan, "Testable earthquake forecasts for 1999", Seism. Res. Lett., 70, 393-403, 1999.

59. Kagan Y. Y. "Is earthquake seismology a hard, quantitative science?", Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 155, 233-258, 1999.

60. Kagan Y. Y. "Universality of the seismic moment-frequency relation", Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 155, 537-573, 1999.

61. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, "Worldwide doublets of large shallow earthquakes", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 89, 1147-1155, 1999.

62. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, "Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes", Geophys. J. Int., 143, 438-453, 2000.

63. Kagan Y. Y. "Temporal Correlations of Earthquake Focal Mechanisms", Geophys. J. Int., 143, 881-897, 2000.

64. Kagan, Y. Y., and F. Schoenberg "Estimation of the Upper Cutoff Parameter for the Tapered Pareto Distribution", (David Vere-Jones' Festschrift, edited by D. J. Daley), J. Appl. Probab., 38A, 158-175, 2001.

65. Kagan Y. Y. "Seismic moment distribution revisited: I. Statistical results", Geophys. J. Int., 148, 520-541, 2002.

66. Kagan Y. Y. "Aftershock zone scaling", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 92, 641-655, 2002.

67. Kagan Y. Y. "Seismic moment distribution revisited: II. Moment conservation principle", Geophys. J. Int., 149, 731-754, 2002.

68. Bird, P., Kagan, Y. Y., and Jackson, D. D., 2002. "Plate tectonics and earthquake potential of spreading ridges and oceanic transform faults", in: Plate Boundary Zones, AGU Geodynamics Series Monograph Volume 30, eds. S. Stein and J. T. Freymueller, 203-218 (DOI: 10/1029/030GD12).

69. Kagan, Y. Y., 2002. "Modern California earthquake catalogs and their comparison", Seism. Res. Lett., 73(6), 921-929.

70. Kagan Y. Y., 2003. "Accuracy of modern global earthquake catalogs", Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 135(2-3), 173-209.

71. Rong, Y.-F., D. D. Jackson and Y. Y. Kagan, 2003. "Seismic gaps and earthquakes", J. Geophys. Res., 108(B10), 2471, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334.

72-73. "EARTHQUAKE SCIENCE AND SEISMIC RISK REDUCTION", 2003 NATO Arbus book components.

74. Kagan Y. Y. "Short-term properties of earthquake catalogs and models of earthquake source", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 94(4), 1207-1228, 2004.

75. Bird, P., and Y. Y. Kagan, 2004. "Plate-tectonic analysis of shallow seismicity: apparent boundary width, beta, corner magnitude, coupled lithosphere thickness, and coupling in seven tectonic settings", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 94(6), 2380-2399.

76. Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and D. D. Jackson, 2005. "Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering", J. Geophys. Res., 110(B5), B05S08, 10.1029/2004JB003286.

77. Kagan, Y.Y., 2005. "Earthquake slip distribution: A statistical model", J. Geophys. Res., 110(B5), B05S11, 10.1029/2004JB003280.

78. Kagan, Yan Y., David D. Jackson, and Zhen Liu, 2005. "Stress and earthquakes in southern California, 1850-2004", J. Geophys. Res., 110(B5), B05S14, 10.1029/2004JB003313.

79. Zaliapin, I. V., Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Schoenberg, 2005. "Approximating the distribution of Pareto sums", Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 162(6-7), 1187-1228.

80. Kagan, Y. Y., and H. Houston, 2005. "Relation between mainshock rupture process and Omori's law for aftershock moment release rate", Geophys. J. Int., 163(3), 1039-1048.

81. Kagan, Y. Y., 2005. "Double-couple earthquake focal mechanism: Random rotation and display", Geophys. J. Int., 163(3), 1065-1072.

82. Kagan, Y. Y. and D. D. Jackson, 2006. Comment on `Testing earthquake prediction methods: "The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV >= 5.8"' by V. G. Kossobokov, Tectonophysics, 413(1-2), 33-38.

83. Kagan, Y. Y., D. D. Jackson, and Y. F. Rong, 2006. A new catalog of southern California earthquakes, 1800-2005, Seismological Research Letters, 77(1), 30-38.

84. Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and D. D. Jackson, 2006. Comparison of short-term and time-independent earthquake forecast models for southern California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 96(1), 90-106.

85. Castellaro, S., F. Mulargia and Y. Y. Kagan, 2006. "Regression problems for magnitudes", Geophys. J. Int., 165(3), 913-930.

86. Jackson, D. D., and Y. Y. Kagan, 2006. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: lessons for the future, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 96(4b), S397-S409.

87. Kagan, Y. Y., 2006. "Why does theoretical physics fail to explain and predict earthquake occurrence?", in: Modelling Critical and Catastrophic Phenomena in Geoscience: A Statistical Physics Approach, Lecture Notes in Physics, 705, pp. 303-359, P. Bhattacharyya and B. K. Chakrabarti (Eds), Springer Verlag, Berlin--Heidelberg.

Papers, discussing statistical tensor analysis are ## 12, 14-15, 18-20, 24, 29, 32, 34, 37, 39, 56, 63, 81.

Seismic moment or magnitude distribution is discussed in ## 11, 27, 35, 42-43, 46, 49, 53, 60, 64-65, 67-68, 72, 75, 79, 85 papers.

Papers on earthquake prediction are ## 3, 13, 17, 22, 30, 33, 36, 38, 41, 44-45, 48, 50-52, 54-55, 57-59, 62, 71, 73, 82, 84, 86.

Papers on stress and earthquakes are ## 16, 24, 37, 39, 56, 76, 78.

Review papers are ## 23, 31, 40, 47, 54, 59, 87.

RECENT MANUSCRIPTS

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Registration of tremors during aftershock sequence of the 1966 Tashkent (Uzbekistan) earthquake.